17. Numerical Weather Prediction

Meteorology is all about forecasting. Whenever you say that you are a meteorologist or meteorology major, the first thing anyone asks is, “what’s it going to be like tomorrow”? So how do we forecast?

Our primary tool in forecasting future weather is to use a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. These models are finite mathematical representations of the governing equations of the atmosphere that we can arrange to solve for a future time. What is most important is that we get a set of fields (variables) that are valid at future times. Through the diagnoses of the variables at the future time we are able to make a forecast (prediction) of what the most likely state of the weather will be for a given area. But it is only a tool and your own meteorological knowledge and growing expertise will be another critical tool to help you decipher when a NWP model is performing well and when it might be missing something critical to a given forecast.